One indicator of optimism fell to a 30-month low, indicating that California consumers are still concerned in the Trump 2.0 era.
The Conference Board’s January consumer confidence indexes, which monitor California, seven other states, and the national average, were examined by my reliable spreadsheet. This psychological metric is derived from monthly surveys that concluded on January 20th for the purposes of this study. Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second term as president on that day.
You don’t need an index to see that Republican Trump and liberal California aren’t a good combination. Nevertheless, three months after the results were announced, statewide optimism has declined.
California confidence is currently 17% lower than it was before the election in October, having fallen 7% in January. At that time, Golden State optimism reached its highest level in 14 months.
Thus, statewide confidence fell to a level last observed in July 2022, when the economy was only beginning to recover from the pandemic’s worst days.
It’s true that American consumers are anxious, but they’re not as worried. The month had a 5% decline in national confidence, which is 5% lower than in October.
Strangely, these indices revealed that when Trump took office in 2017, Californian consumers were at least a little excited.
Eight years ago, during the same three-month period, state-wide confidence increased by 25%, more than doubling the 11% national increase.
Trump’s bold economic measures in early 2025 at least cause financial instability.
His plans for massive deportations of undocumented residents, possible trade conflicts with trading partners, massive tax cuts, or prospective reductions in government services have unknown long-term effects.
These unknowns are now added to California’s already-existing concerns about the state’s unstable job market, high living costs, high interest rates, and wildfires in Los Angeles.
According to this survey, Californians’ top concerns are related to their financial futures. The Conference Board’s statewide expectations index has decreased by 30% since October and by 10% each month. This measure is also at its lowest point in 30 months.
Nonetheless, consumers in the state seem satisfied with the situation of the economy. Only 1% has been lost since October, while the current situation index was down 3% for the month.
Golden Staters who failed to get their candidate elected to the White House are not the only ones who are nervous.
Examine consumer confidence in the five states Trump won on election day, according to this report. Out of the eight states monitored, Michigan was the only one where confidence rose in January. In Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, optimism declined.
Only Pennsylvania’s January confidence, however, fell short of pre-election levels out of these five.
And aside from California, which two states in this report did Trump lose?
It should come as no surprise that optimism in Illinois and New York declined for the month and is now below October.
What is the historical level of anxiety among Californians as 2025 begins?
California’s January reading was just 1% higher than the state’s average confidence score from each month during the previous 18 years prior to 2007, when the Conference Board started using state confidence indexes.
Keep in mind that the Great Recession and the pandemic were both economic disasters during this time. In the meantime, optimism among the ordinary American has increased by 13% since 2007.
In California, confidence is essentially nonexistent. Only Illinois was as close to its usual optimism in January as the other seven states.
At 36% above its average, Michigan is currently the most optimistic state according to this calculation. Next in line were Florida (23%), Ohio (22%), Texas (8%), Pennsylvania (6%), and New York (28% higher).
The Southern California News Group’s business columnist is Jonathan Lansner. His email address is [email protected].
