Few Americans are moving to California, when you see the inflow in national terms.
Last year, California drew 422,075 people from other states. My trust spreadsheet’s review of new state-to-state migration data from the Census Bureau tells me those arrivals equal 5.6% of the nation’s 7.55 million interstate relocations. That’s less than half the state’s 11.6% share of Americans aged 1 or older.
That’s the third-largest inflow among the states. Tops was Florida at 636,933, and next was Texas at 611,942. But in the last 20 years, minus 2020’s statistical lockdown, California arrivals have never been lower.
It’s zero secret that California is a horrifically expensive place to live – scaring off many who’d otherwise enjoy the state’s culture and climate. And there’s a good slice of non-Californians who don’t care for the state’s progressive politics.
So stalled arrivals isn’t that surprising. The 2023 inflow was 11% below 2022, the largest one-year percentage-point dip in the past two decades.
Now interstate moves were off 8% nationally, but only 17 states fared worse for drops in newcomers than the Golden State, led by Connecticut, off 35%, and Montana, off 24%.
To be fair, popularity among the nation’s three biggest states sagged. The Texas inflow was off 8% – the 26th-biggest dip – and Florida’s 14% drop was the 15th worst. Incidentally, Maryland had the biggest gain in newcomers, up 16%, followed by Hawaii, with a 4% increase.
But let me offer another number to show how little appeal the Golden State offers to most Americans.
Consider that the 2023 inflow translated to 1.09% of California population – that’s a dead-last “attraction rate” in the nation. That’s less than half the nation’s 2.28% interstate relocation rate. Second-worst was Michigan at 1.36%.
Who draws best? The mercurial population of the District of Columbia, with 8.48% of residents being newcomers, then North Dakota at 4.44%. Texas was No. 41 at 2.03% while Florida was No. 23 at 2.84%.
The missing allure – not some “exodus” – is the Golden State’s true population challenge.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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