WASHINGTON, D.C. — With just days remaining until Election Day, AtlasIntel CEO Andrei Roman has suggested that strong turnout among white male voters could be a deciding factor in Donald Trump’s chances of winning Pennsylvania and potentially other Rust Belt states in the 2024 presidential election. Roman’s comments come as AtlasIntel, widely regarded as one of the most accurate polling firms of 2020, reports Trump holding leads in several key swing states.
“What will really make a difference on Tuesday in a place like Pennsylvania… it will be the white turnout mobilization,” Roman said in a recent interview, emphasizing that voter demographics could be pivotal in this year’s election. “If white males really turn out for Trump on Tuesday, he can carry out Pennsylvania.”
Roman noted that the so-called “Rust Belt” states—such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—are highly competitive, and that high turnout from key demographic groups could be critical in securing these states for Trump. AtlasIntel’s latest polling shows Trump with slight leads in all three, but Roman warned that success will ultimately depend on effective voter mobilization.
“The whole garbage truck scene… efforts to mobilize voters… it makes sense from a strategic perspective,” he said, apparently referring to recent campaign events and get-out-the-vote drives in these regions. “This is what he needs to do to mobilize voters on election day. In the Rust Belt states, this is what will make the difference between him winning and losing this election.”
AtlasIntel’s polling model, which proved highly accurate in the 2020 election, currently shows Trump with a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania, as well as a slight edge in Michigan and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania, in particular, is considered a must-win state for Trump, given its history as a key battleground in recent elections.
Roman’s comments reflect the high stakes of the upcoming election and underscore the strategic focus on voter turnout efforts in crucial swing states. Trump’s campaign has concentrated significant resources in Pennsylvania and the broader Rust Belt region, aiming to energize white, working-class voters—a demographic that was central to Trump’s victory in 2016 but saw lower turnout in 2020.
Political analysts are watching Pennsylvania closely, with both campaigns making last-minute efforts to sway undecided voters and ensure their base turns out on Election Day. Roman’s analysis highlights the importance of voter mobilization in a race that polls suggest could be decided by narrow margins in these critical states.
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