According to the survey, these ratings are best viewed as a combination of data and artistic interpretation, and it examines a number of rankings and scorecards that evaluate geographical areas.
Following the election, California’s confidence fell as the politically blue state became depressed at Donald Trump’s win.
The Conference Board’s November consumer confidence indexes, which track national trends and eight states, including California, are reviewed in my reliable spreadsheet. Nearly two weeks after Election Day, the polling that measures consumer optimism was conducted.
Topline
According to this index’s calculations, California’s optimism fell 12% in a single month. The largest decline since May 2023 was that one.
Democrat-focused Only 19 states, including California, voted against Republican Trump in the presidential election. Strangely, in the three months after Trump’s initial victory in 2016, California confidence increased by 18%.
The decline in this confidence indicator was mostly caused by Californians’ pessimistic view of their economic prospects.
In the midst of early pandemic confusion, a metric gauging monetary expectations for the Golden State dropped 22% throughout the month, the largest decline since July 2020. During the three months following the 2016 election, California’s expectations index increased by 28 percent.
In addition, California’s opinion of the state of affairs improved by 1% in November. Following Trump’s prior victory, it increased by 8%.
Details
Why, in my opinion, does confidence have more to do with politics than the different economic challenges that the Golden State faces?
The Conference Board also found that confidence was dropping in the two other states that did not choose Trump.
Illinois’s perception of the current economy improved by 2%, but its confidence fell by 7% and its expectations fell by 17%.
In contrast to a 3% decline in the existing state of affairs, New York’s optimism was down 1% for the month, while expectations were up 1%.
Meanwhile
Four of the five Trump-supporting states saw increases in confidence in November.
Overall, up 9%, expectations down 2%, while current view increased by 19%.
Expectations are 19% higher, but the current perception is 3% lower, up 8% total.
Overall, expectations were up 8%, while the existing perspective was better by 9%.
Overall, up 2%, expectations down 0.1%, while present perspective up 5%.
The current view is 14% lower than anticipated, and the outlier’s total confidence is down 7%.
Bottom line
The threshold for national optimism indicates modest expectations for the incoming administration, which takes office on January 20.
Overall, US consumer confidence increased by 2% during the month, with Americans’ predictions rising by 0.4% and their present opinions improving by 4%.
The Southern California News Group’s business columnist is Jonathan Lansner. His email address is [email protected].
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