In an essay for RealClearInvestigations, John Lott Jr. used data from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and high-profile cases to analyze the effects of crimes committed by illegal immigrants in the United States. Lott asserts that widespread crime and substantial economic costs—estimated at $166.5 billion—have resulted from lapses in screening and oversight.
Important Points:
- High-profile cases, like the murders of Rachel Morin and Laken Riley, spotlight failures in immigrant vetting.
- ICE data identifies over 662,566 criminal illegal immigrants, including those with convictions or pending charges.
- Lott argues ICE s overwhelmed system fails to ensure proper checks, releasing many individuals with criminal records.
- RealClearInvestigations estimates victimization costs at over $160 billion, emphasizing that the real figure may be higher.
- Critics of current immigration policy point to systemic flaws and overwhelmed enforcement as contributing factors.
JOHN LOTT: Illegal Immigrants Are Committing Crimes Here s The Data
Victor Martinez-Hernandez was charged in June with the murder of Maryland mother Rachel Morin, who had five children. Using a sample of the alleged serial offender’s DNA that was found during a house invasion in Los Angeles that resulted in the attack of a nine-year-old child and her mother, Oklahoma police were able to trace him down. According to police, he entered the country illegally in order to avoid being prosecuted for at least one further alleged murder in December 2022 in his native El Salvador.
Sheriff Jeffrey Gahler said, “That should never have been allowed to happen,” alluding to the many warning signs that the case had that were overlooked. Hernandez was detained by his office in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Hernandez’s case is drawing attention to the federal government’s inability to adequately screen and monitor undocumented migrants, much like the Venezuelan gang member Tren de Aragua was sentenced to life in jail last week for the murder of Laken Riley in Georgia.
These disparities have given rise to generalizations that illegal immigrants are less likely than native-born Americans to interact with the criminal justice system. However, an analysis of the data that is now available reveals that millions of migrants—the ones that President-elect Donald Trump has promised to prioritize for deportation—have criminal histories that are unknown because of unlawful crossings, a lack of enforcement, and a lack of data collecting by federal and sanctuary counties.
Furthermore, RealClearInvestigations’ study of the available data indicates that the crime rate among noncitizens is significantly underestimated. According to a different RCI research based on projections created by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) of the U.S. Department of Justice, crime committed by illegal aliens who entered the country by July 21, 2024, is estimated to have cost the nation $166.5 billion. During the Biden administration, a disproportionate number of these felons came to the United States.
The issue starts with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement’s (ICE) initial, insufficient screening. It might be challenging to ascertain the criminal history of migrants from distant nations with frequently inadequate record-keeping. Holding each individual until they have successfully completed a thorough background investigation is likewise impractical. Because of this, ICE frequently lets a large number of illegal immigrants enter the country on their own recognizance, only to find out later that many of them have criminal histories back home.
ICE stated that it had released 7.5 million of these non-detained non-citizens into the United States during the past forty years or so, in response to a request from Republican Representative Tony Gonzales of Texas. 662,566 noncitizens with criminal histories, 435,719 people with criminal convictions in their home countries, and an additional 226,847 people with ongoing criminal accusations are among them, according to ICE. However, these exact numbers do not specify whether the latter group’s offenses were committed in the United States or in the accused’s home country.
13,099 of these non-detained individuals had homicide convictions, with 1,845 facing criminal homicide accusations, according to ICE’s letter to Rep. Gonzales dated July 21. 2,659 people are still awaiting charges, and 9,461 more have been convicted of sex offenses (excluding assault and commercialized sex). Other convictions include firearms offenses (13,423), assault (62,231), robbery (10,031), sexual assault (15,811), and dangerous drug offenses (56,533).
Since these numbers only include the most significant crimes that each person has committed, they are only indicative of the scope of crime. For instance, a killer is only considered a murderer if they also committed a sexual offense. The fact that millions of migrants are breaking the law just by being in the United States is not included. Additionally, it ignores the illegality of working without the required authorization or the pervasive use of stolen SSNs to obtain jobs.
Approximately 9 percent of the 7.5 million discharged noncitizens are the 662,566 convicted and probable criminals.
The correlation between crime and illegal aliens is mostly ignored by the statistics. According to the national docket data, noncitizens were either detained at the border or turned themselves in to border officials. Those who refuse to turn themselves in probably have a criminal history or other motivations for avoiding capture. Others, however, escaped detection and will not be included in these figures. Gotaways are those who have been seen crossing the U.S. border illegally but have not been stopped or turned back. With up to 38% of border officers switching from monitoring to processing responsibilities and 30% of surveillance cameras not working, millions of people—possibly including the most dangerous ones—likely entered the country illegally.
According to Customs and Border Protection, since fiscal 2021, almost two million of these gotaways have entered the nation.
The problem is also understated by the figures on processed migrants. It is uncommon for criminals to commit a single offense. For instance, among the 75 most populated counties in the United States, between 1990 and 2002, 56% of people convicted of violent felonies had previously been convicted of a crime, and 70% of those convicted had previously been arrested. The average homicide suspect in Washington, D.C., in 2023 had been arrested eleven times prior to executing a crime. 60.1% of criminals released from jail in 2005 were arrested again within two years, and 73.5% were apprehended within four years, according to data for 30 states. Each person has a single entry in the ICE data set.
Arrests or convictions in these other nations will understate whether illegal aliens are criminals because most violent offenses do not result in an arrest. In 2022, just 35.2% of violent crimes in all U.S. cities ended in an arrest. Only 24.1% of rapes, 22.7% of robberies, and 39.9% of violent assaults led to an arrest, compared to 50.6% of homicides.
It is challenging to estimate the whole victimization costs of crime to families and society, as demonstrated by the murder cases of Rachel Morin and Laken Riley.
RCI estimated the expected bare minimum economic consequences of illegal alien crime using techniques created by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ). Assuming that each of the 662,566 non-detained noncitizen offenders on ICE’s registry committed the offense for which they have been previously charged just once in the United States, it calculated the estimated cost to victims in monetary terms.
The NIJ only computed the cost to victims for eight categories of crimes, although ICE sent Rep. Gonzales statistics on 42 other sorts of crimes. 15 of the crime categories reported by ICE were added to the list by Prof. Mark Cohen of Vanderbilt University, who co-authored the original NIJ report. These categories include motor vehicle theft, drug offenses, fraud, alcohol offenses, gambling, robbery, assault, arson, burglary, larceny, murder, sexual assault, sexual offenses, and stolen property. Although ICE does not gather data on child abuse, drunk driving, or vandalism, Cohen’s updated figures estimate the impact from these offenses.
NIJ s estimated losses from crime victimization include: medical care/ambulances, mental health care, police/fire service costs, social/victim services, property loss/damage, reduced productivity (at work, home, and school), and nonmonetary losses (fear, pain, suffering, and lost quality of life).
Of the $166.5 billion in projected costs of criminal victimization, murders are responsible for over $153.8 billion (a breakdown of the costs of crime for each category of crime is given here). An additional $5.2 billion is derived from sexual offenses and assaults, while another $6 billion is related to sexual assaults and offenses.
Cost estimates are unavailable for half of the crimes committed by these unpunished persons. Kidnapping, embezzlement, extortion, smuggling, traffic infractions, and firearm violations are some examples of these crimes.
These criminal illegal aliens entered the United States under multiple administrations, but the size of the problem was likely larger under the Biden administration. This isn’t just because there were a lot more illegal immigrants coming into the nation. Under the Trump administration sRemain In Mexicopolicy, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) performed background checks on immigrants. That included contacting immigrants countries of origin.
ICE agents cannot access the same databases to check on the immigrants, and they don t contact the immigrant s home country. Plus, the massive inflow of immigrants has overwhelmed the system. The deputy director for ICE blames theenormous workloadagents face, so they haven t been able to do even the limited background checks they are doing. There are so many coming in that the government cannot house these immigrants until their backgrounds are properly checked.
ICE has been processing criminals as they enter the country, but without identifying them as criminals. So, under the Biden administration, they have simply been released into the country. Now, they are walking freely in the United States, and no one knows where they are.
As bad as these numbers are, the reality may be even worse. The Biden-Harris administration is accused of presenting the border crisis so that it does not look as bad as it is. In mid-September, retired San Diego Border Patrol Chief Aaron Heitktestifiedhow the Biden administration ordered him not to publicize the arrests of illegal border crossers who they identified as having terrorist ties.
The American Immigration Council, whichstrongly opposesPresident-elect Donald Trump s deportation policies, estimates that it couldcost $88 billionto deport one million illegal immigrants. But if we accept its estimate and ignorethe various government benefitsthat these individuals might be receiving, ICE s number of 662,556 illegal criminal immigrants implies a cost of $58.3 billion to remove them just over one-third of the conservative estimate given here of the cost of the crimes by these criminals.
The estimate of over $160 billion in costs from criminal illegal aliens is very likely an underestimate of the true costs. It assumes the average criminal coming into the country commits only one offense similar to what he committed in his home country. We are also not counting the costs of half of criminal illegal aliens.
This article was originally published by RealClearInvestigations and made available via RealClearWire.
John R. Lott Jr. is a contributor to RealClearInvestigations, focusing on voting and gun rights. His articles have appeared in publications such as the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Los Angeles Times, New York Post, USA Today, and Chicago Tribune. Lott is an economist who has held research and/or teaching positions at the University of Chicago, Yale University, Stanford, UCLA, Wharton, and Rice.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.
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