by Washington, D.C. — After weeks of Arctic air outbreaks, record-breaking cold, and multiple snowstorms, a notable shift in the weather pattern is taking shape across the United States. Federal forecasters say warmer-than-average temperatures are likely to spread across most of the Lower 48 states heading into Christmas, potentially melting existing snow and reducing the chances of a traditional White Christmas for many regions.
According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), temperature outlooks for late December show a broad warming trend developing nationwide, marking a sharp contrast from the intense winter conditions that dominated earlier this month.
Arctic cold and snow dominated early winter
The winter season began aggressively, with much of the country experiencing historic cold snaps and heavy snowfall. A series of Arctic blasts, fueled by disruptions in the polar vortex, pushed bitterly cold air deep into the central and eastern United States.
Several regions recorded record low temperatures, while back-to-back snowstorms disrupted travel, school schedules, and daily routines for millions of Americans. In many areas, snow cover expanded rapidly, raising hopes among winter enthusiasts for a snowy holiday season.
However, long-range forecasts now suggest that this early winter intensity will not hold through Christmas.
CPC outlook points to widespread warming
The Climate Prediction Center’s latest temperature outlook indicates that above-average temperatures are favored across most of the Lower 48 through the end of December.
Meteorologists say the shift is tied to a large ridge of high pressure currently parked over the western United States. This ridge has already brought unseasonably warm conditions to parts of the West, including the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Rockies.
As the jet stream pattern evolves next week, forecasters expect this ridge — and the associated warmth — to slide eastward, allowing milder air to spread into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast.
Read Also: NWS Warns of 3–10 Inches of Snow Across Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania This Weekend
Midwest and Northeast likely to see snow melt
While many areas from Iowa through Pennsylvania are currently blanketed in snow, the incoming warmer air could lead to widespread melting as Christmas approaches.
Temperatures climbing above seasonal norms may gradually erode snowpack across lower elevations and urban areas, particularly in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic. This would significantly reduce the likelihood of snow remaining on the ground by Christmas morning.
Forecasters caution that the melting process could also contribute to wet and slushy conditions, especially during overnight refreezing cycles, even if new snowfall does not occur.
White Christmas chances narrowing
To officially qualify as a White Christmas, weather records require at least one inch of snow on the ground by 7 a.m. on December 25.
Based on current projections, the areas most likely to meet that threshold will be higher-elevation and northern regions, including:
- The Rocky Mountains
- Far northern Minnesota
- Parts of Wisconsin and Michigan
- Northern New England, particularly interior and mountainous zones
Outside of these areas, snow cover is expected to be limited or nonexistent by Christmas Day.
Major Northeast cities unlikely to see snow
For residents of large Northeast metropolitan areas, the odds of a White Christmas were already slim — and this warming trend further reduces those chances.
Cities such as New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. have not experienced a White Christmas since 2009, and forecasters say 2025 is shaping up to follow the same pattern.
Urban heat effects, lower elevation, and proximity to warmer coastal air make it difficult for snow to linger in these cities, even during colder winters.
Why the pattern is changing
Meteorologists explain that winter weather often arrives in waves, and early-season cold does not guarantee a snowy holiday.
As the polar vortex relaxes and the jet stream becomes more west-to-east oriented, milder Pacific air can push across the country. This pattern favors temperature moderation, even if brief cold snaps still occur.
La Niña conditions remain in place this winter, but forecasters note that La Niña winters can still feature extended mild periods, especially when supported by high-pressure ridging.
Snow lovers may need to look north or uphill
While the upcoming warmup may disappoint those hoping for snow-covered landscapes on Christmas morning, winter is far from over.
Colder air and snow chances are expected to return later in the season, particularly in January and February. For now, those seeking a classic winter scene may need to travel north or to higher elevations.
Ski resorts in the Rockies and northern Appalachians are likely to retain snow cover despite the warming trend, though some lower-elevation resorts could see conditions soften heading into Christmas week.
Holiday travel outlook improves
The warmer pattern could have a silver lining for holiday travelers. Milder temperatures reduce the risk of widespread winter storm disruptions, especially in major airport hubs across the Midwest and Northeast.
While localized weather issues are still possible, forecasters say the overall pattern appears more favorable for travel compared to earlier in the month.
Forecast still subject to change
Meteorologists stress that long-range forecasts can evolve, and small shifts in the jet stream could still alter outcomes for specific regions.
Residents are encouraged to monitor updated forecasts as Christmas approaches, particularly if travel plans or outdoor events depend on weather conditions.
For now, the message from forecasters is clear: after an intense start to winter, a milder stretch is likely to arrive just in time for Christmas, reshaping holiday expectations for much of the country.
Do you prefer a snowy Christmas or milder holiday weather? Share your thoughts and local conditions in the comments below.
