The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its long-term winter forecast for San Francisco, California, and it’s looking like the season will be anything but typical.
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SAN FRANCISCO, CA
– According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, this winter will bring a dramatic change to California’s usual weather patterns. From wildfires to heavy rainfall, the Golden State is no stranger to unpredictable weather. This year’s winter forecast is no exception, with a combination of above-average temperatures and an unusually wet season, signaling a winter unlike anything we’ve seen recently.
What’s Different About Long-Term Forecasts?
Unlike short-term weather reports, the Old Farmer’s Almanac looks ahead at seasonal patterns over a longer period. Though exact daily forecasts can’t be predicted a year out, the Almanac uses global weather systems and historical data to identify potential trends.
The Almanac’s Forecasting Method
The Old Farmer’s Almanac relies on a blend of traditional forecasting methods alongside modern scientific approaches. They incorporate three main disciplines:
This mix of science and tradition is based on solar activity and historical weather data from the last three decades, spanning 1991 to 2020.
Warmer Temperatures Ahead for San Francisco
If you’ve been dreaming of a classic cold and crisp winter, you might want to adjust your expectations. San Francisco is expected to experience above-average temperatures this year. However, this doesn’t mean you can skip your winter coat entirely. The coldest spells are forecasted for mid-December and mid-to-late January, so you’ll still need those layers when the chill hits.
This warmer trend could have widespread effects, including higher energy bills and impacts on agriculture, particularly in areas that typically see colder winters. There’s also concern that the extended warm weather could stretch the wildfire season even longer.
A Wet Winter with More Rain
In a bit of good news for California’s ongoing drought, this winter promises to bring more rain than usual. The forecast predicts above-average rainfall, which will be a welcome relief, helping to replenish the state’s water supply and ease drought conditions.
However, this increase in rainfall also raises the risk of flooding, especially in regions vulnerable to mudslides and soil erosion after wildfire seasons. Major storm activity is expected to occur around mid-December, early January, and mid-to-late February, so keep an eye out for potential flood warnings and road closures.
California’s Mountains to See More Snow
Good news for skiers and snowboarders: the mountains are likely to get above-average snowfall this season. The heaviest snowfalls are expected around mid-December, early January, and again in mid-to-late February, which is fantastic news for popular ski resorts.
This snow accumulation will not only create great conditions for winter sports but will also contribute to California’s water reserves as the snow melts in the spring.
What’s Driving This Year’s Weather Outlook?
This year, the Sun is at the peak of its Solar Cycle 25, leading to increased solar activity, which is typically associated with warmer global temperatures. However, this relationship has weakened somewhat in recent years, and it remains to be seen how it will affect California’s winter.
The Almanac also considers ocean-atmospheric oscillations like El Niño and La Niña. This year, the Almanac predicts a neutral phase with a potential lean toward La Niña, following last year’s strong El Niño. They are also keeping an eye on conditions in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, as these can have an impact on temperature and precipitation across North America.
Get Ready for Winter!
While this winter may be warmer than usual, it won’t come without its share of challenges. Expect heavier rainfalls and more snow in the mountains, bringing both relief and risks. Whether you’re preparing for a storm or heading to the slopes, this winter in San Francisco will be a season to remember.
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