Poll shows Trump leading in key swing states, according to AtlasIntel


WASHINGTON, D.C. — A new poll released by AtlasIntel, a firm known for its accuracy in the 2020 election cycle, shows former President Donald Trump leading in several critical swing states as the 2024 presidential race intensifies. The results indicate a potential shift in voter sentiment, with Trump reportedly ahead in battleground states that proved decisive in recent elections.

According to AtlasIntel’s latest data, Trump holds a lead over President Joe Biden in every major swing state, with significant advantages in Arizona and Nevada. The poll shows the following margins in each state:

  • Arizona: Trump +6.5
  • Nevada: Trump +5.5
  • North Carolina: Trump +3.4
  • Georgia: Trump +2.5
  • Wisconsin: Trump +1.0
  • Michigan: Trump +1.5
  • Pennsylvania: Trump +1.8

In addition to the state-by-state breakdown, AtlasIntel also reported that Trump holds a slight national lead, polling around 2 points ahead of Biden.


The survey’s findings are noteworthy as swing states have historically played a decisive role in determining the outcome of presidential elections. Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania were among the closest states in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, with Biden narrowly winning several of these in 2020 to secure his victory.

AtlasIntel’s poll comes at a critical juncture in the 2024 campaign, as both parties intensify their efforts to mobilize voters in these competitive states. The polling margins, particularly Trump’s substantial leads in Arizona and Nevada, suggest a potential path for the former president to reclaim the White House.

As the election approaches, both campaigns are expected to increase their focus on these battlegrounds, with analysts closely watching for shifts in polling trends. AtlasIntel’s polling has gained attention due to its accuracy in previous election cycles, though political experts caution that polling data represents a snapshot in time and that voter dynamics can shift in the final months before Election Day.

The AtlasIntel poll underscores the high stakes in the 2024 election and the critical role that swing states will play as Trump and Biden vie for the presidency.

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