What is at risk for areas with a high immigrant population under President-elect Donald Trump?
Few states in the nation are likely to be as severely affected by a second Trump presidency as California, where there are, according to some estimates, more undocumented immigrants than any other state. However, the answer to that issue is still unclear. Almost 6 million Californians were illegally or shared a home with an unauthorized family member in 2021.
The number of undocumented people is particularly high in Southern California. According to the California Immigrant Data Portal, 1.9 million people in Los Angeles and over 3 million in Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Los Angeles counties were either undocumented or lived with an undocumented family member in 2021.
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Trump has suggested launching the biggest domestic deportation campaign in American history, concentrating only on people who are not authorized to be in the country and giving deportation priority to those with criminal histories. Hardline people with strong anti-immigration sentiments have already been appointed to important positions in the president-elect’s government.
Though specifics about how such an operation would be conducted or even funded have not been disclosed, he has called for the use of the National Guard and local law police to aid in this endeavor.
In light of this, discussions on the destiny of undocumented immigrants in California have been reignited by Trump’s immigration agenda, or at least by preliminary proposals and conjecture.
However, there is still great uncertainty about what would occur with regard to immigration during another Trump administration.
We have no idea exactly what will occur. Nobody can predict what will occur. Professor of law at UCLA with a focus on immigration law, Hiroshi Motomura, stated, “I don’t think the coming administration even knows what’s going to happen.”
And there’s the timing issue. According to Matt Jarvis, an associate professor of political science at Cal State Fullerton, the balance of power in Washington, D.C., may make it more difficult for Trump to enact quick legislation in the first few months of his presidency.
Despite taking back control of the House, Republicans only have a small majority. Additionally, Trump just appointed a few members of the House to his Cabinet, which might postpone a greater Republican majority in Congress and necessitate special elections.
He will require all of the votes, and so far, he has at least given them two votes against holding a special election, Jarvis stated.
Although there are restrictions on his authority, Trump may use executive action to implement specific immigration laws. Executive orders must abide by the U.S. Constitution and current laws; they cannot enact new ones.
Motomura stated that while there are procedures for accelerating deportations, there are also legal barriers, such as the right of immigrants to be heard. Additionally, deporting millions of individuals is logistically challenging.
Arresting, detaining, and deporting ten million people is no easy task, is it? “Even something as basic as transportation, which is a place to hold people, has to be paid for,” Motomura stated.
Despite his promises of mass deportations, Trump actually deported more than 1.5 million people during his first term, compared to 2.9 million during his first and 1.9 million during his second terms as president. According to some estimates, 1.49 million people have been deported under President Joe Biden’s administration.
A request for comment from Trump’s transition staff was not immediately answered.
An early response
Relevant ArticlesWhy mass deportations will drive up your grocery billCalifornia s outmigration woes: No. 1 gap, No. 1 improvementHouse District 14 candidates Swalwell, Kruttiventi walk a fine line on immigration issuesIn Nevada, immigration is a nuanced issue. But the politics of it is painted in black and whiteUC says federal law prevents it from hiring undocumented students. A lawsuit seeks to change thatMotomura anticipates local governments pushing back against Trump.
In fact, Democratic California officials have already begun efforts to Trump-proof the state.
Just two days after the election, Gov. Gavin Newsom who is considered to have presidential aspirations of his own asked legislators to convene in Sacramento for a special session focused on strengthening California s legal resources to protect immigrant families, among other issues.
More locally, the Los Angeles City Council will discuss, at an unspecified future date, aninitiative that would bar the use of city resources or personnelto assist in the federal enforcement of immigration laws.
And local law enforcement agencies pointed out that state law prevents them from using department resources for immigration enforcement activities.
Mara Rodriguez, a spokesperson for the San Bernardino County Sheriff s Department, said department resources whether funding or personnel cannot be used to investigate, interrogate, detain, detect or arrest individuals for immigration purposes.
The Sheriff s Department may only transfer an individual in its custody to immigration authorities if a judicial warrant or probable cause determination authorizes the transfer or if the individual has a qualifying criminal history under the law, Rodriguez said.
In Orange County, the Santa Ana Police Department does not and will not participate in immigration enforcement activities, including operations by the federal Immigrations and Customs Enforcement agency, said Santa Ana Police Chief Robert Rodriguez. According to U.S. Census Bureau statistics, Santa Ana has between 70,000 and 80,000 undocumented residents.
As someone who grew up in Santa Ana as a former undocumented person, I understand firsthand the fear and uncertainty that community members may feel regarding immigration enforcement, said Rodriguez.
Our department s mission is centered around public safety, not immigration enforcement, he said. We believe that cooperation with federal immigration efforts could erode the trust we ve built with our community members and discourage individuals from coming forward to report crimes or seek help when needed.
At the federal level, it s highly unlikely that Congress will pass any new protections before Trump takes office, said Rep. Linda S nchez, a Whittier Democrat and chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
That means immigrants in states like Texas or Florida, with Trump-aligned governors, remain at greater risk than immigrants in blue states like California, she said.
Earlier this year, an enforcement-only immigration bill that had bipartisan Senate support failed because of opposition from Trump and his MAGA allies in Congress, she said, pointing to a border security bill that failed in February after a majority of Republicans blocked it.
Any bill to protect immigrants, including Dreamers, would face a similar fate given Republican control of the current House especially since Trump s MAGA allies feel even more emboldened after the election, S nchez predicted.
California has thelargest number of recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, a policy established by the Obama administration in 2012 to protect eligible undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children. The majority of DACA recipients in California reside in the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim metropolitan area.
A spokesperson for the Republican Party of California would not comment on the feasibility of Trump s immigration plan but emphasized Trump s commitment to securing the border, stopping the flow of fentanyl and other dangerous substances, and protecting the state s immigrants who have followed the established processes.
While we will afford President Trump the time and space needed to roll out and implement his full plan, Republicans focus remains on upholding public safety by ensuring that those who commit crimes and are within our borders are not afforded sanctuary, said Hector Barajas, the state party s Latino communications media advisor.
The president will also likely work with foreign nations to address the root causes of illegal immigration and support measures that curb unlawful flows, Barajas added. We await President Trump and Congress next steps and look forward to evaluating additional programs that reinforce our national security and uphold the rule of law.
We ve been here before
Local immigrant groups were quick to respond to the potential impacts a second Trump presidency could have on the communities they serve. But many groups said they felt limited in how much they could prepare in the coming months, as the specifics of Trump s policy plans remain uncertain.
Instead, they re looking to past examples of immigration policies implemented in the U.S., such as Operation Wetback, an Eisenhower campaign that wasone of history s largest deportation effortsthat included some U.S. citizens, and, more recently, the series of executive orders during the first Trump administration thatrestricted entry into the U.S. from several predominantly Muslim countries.
We ve been here before, said Masih Fouladi, executive director of the California Immigrant Policy Center.
We re used to playing defense and offense, said Luz Gallegos, executive director of TODEC, a group that works to support immigrants and farm workers in the Inland Empire and Coachella Valley.
Trump, Gallegos said, will enter his second term with a deeper understanding of the workings of government.
We prepared ahead of time, said Gallegos. We wanted to make sure that our organization was able to respond to the needs of our most vulnerable populations.
TODEC has scheduled know your rights workshops for immigrants, especially the undocumented, which include things like what paperwork they should have in case they re at risk of being deported and education on rights to an attorney, to remain silent and deny someone access to their home without a warrant.
Families that have undocumented heads of households, caregivers or parents need to make a plan, Gallegos said, which could look like having a caregiver affidavit in the case of parents at risk of deportation. A caregiver affidavit ensures someone can take custody of the children, which could help them avoid further trauma by keeping them out of foster care and with someone they know, Gallegos said.
Gallegos said much of TODEC s programming was revamped during Trump s first term to account for emergency actions for immigrants in hopes of avoiding deportation and getting quick legal, financial and educational help to immigrant communities. A 24/7 helpline was also implemented, she said.
The day after Election Day, Gallegos said her organization received a large number of calls from community members and walk-ins at all of their office sites throughout the region.
The community is scared, she said. We have families whose kids didn t want to go to school. Community members may be undocumented, but if they know their rights, they re able to help defend them and secure their stay.
Fouladi, with the California Immigrant Policy Center, said her organization will continue to provide legal services, including for low-wage immigrants, as well as legislative advocacy.
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