Ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration, Ukraine and Russia are stepping up their territorial offensives in anticipation of his drive for a negotiated peace agreement. Russia deploys tens of thousands of troops, including reinforcements from North Korea, while Ukraine holds a portion of Russia’s Kursk territory and uses long-range missiles supplied by the United States for strikes. Both sides seek to obtain strategic advantage. Both countries are engaged in expensive wars to fortify their positions prior to negotiations, and Ukraine worries that Trump’s strategy for peace talks may favor Russia.
Key Points
- Ukraine and Russia are escalating territorial battles to secure leverage before Trump s anticipated peace negotiations.
- Ukrainian forces are holding part of Russia s Kursk region, which Russia is attempting to retake with 45,000 troops and North Korean reinforcements.
- U.S.-provided long-range missiles have allowed Ukraine to strike deep into Russian territory, adding complexity to the conflict.
- Ukraine views holding Kursk as critical leverage for future ceasefire talks, despite concerns over manpower and resource shortages.
- Russian forces are reportedly losing 1,000 troops daily in Kursk, but Ukraine faces challenges maintaining its hold due to resource disparities.
Ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration and anticipated push for a peace agreement, Russia and Ukraine are both fighting for new territory.
Trump has repeatedly stated that he would end the war quickly, citing his skills to negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his connections with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. According to The Wall Street Journal, Russia and Ukraine are reportedly making last-ditch attempts to seize land for one another that they may potentially use as leverage during discussions in the hopes that Trump will quickly mediate a peace agreement.
One Ukrainian battalion commander told the WSJ, “They’re attacking all the time, morning, day, and night.”
The Kursk area of Russia, which Ukrainian soldiers partially occupied during an incursion over the summer, is one such flashpoint. The WSJ claims that Russian forces are fighting valiantly to retake the area. Moscow has sent some 45,000 troops to the area and has reclaimed half of it in recent weeks. Ten thousand North Korean troops have also been sent to Kursk to support Russian forces.
After two years of conflict, Ukraine has been using long-range missiles supplied by the United States to attack targets deep within Russia for the first time. Given the threats to national security, numerous national security professionals were perplexed by President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to utilize the missiles.
According to the WSJ, Kyiv is worried that Trump will handle US assistance for Ukraine in a different way than Biden has and that his attempt to resolve the conflict might actually work in Russia’s favor. Russia aims to reclaim Kursk before Trump takes office, according to Ukraine.
A Ukrainian sergeant fighting in Kursk told the WSJ, “It’s the best Ukrainian forces against the best Russian forces.” I don’t see why we should pull out at this rate.
Some Ukrainian military told the WSJ that Russia is losing over 1,000 men every day in the battle to regain Kursk. Since the start of the conflict, Russia has lost an estimated 700,000 combatants.
According to the WSJ, Ukraine is placing a wager that if it can maintain Kursk, it would be able to use the area as leverage in upcoming peace talks with Russia.
Franz-Stefan Gady, a military analyst based in Vienna, told the WSJ that Ukraine’s goal is to keep it as a negotiating chip and secure a good attrition ratio in comparison to the Russians. “I think the Russians will have a tough fight,” Gady said, adding that Ukraine will find it challenging to hold onto Kursk.
However, according to the WSJ, some Ukrainian soldiers’ opinions are equivocal, with some expressing uncertainty or rage about the Kursk operation and whether the expense was justified. Additionally, Moscow continues to send personnel to the front lines. Since the start of the conflict, Ukraine has struggled with a shortage of personnel, and its soldiers lack access to the same military and communication tools as those in Russia.
“I believe they will eventually push us back,” the commander of the Ukrainian unit told the WSJ. They increase their wealth and power, and they will stop at nothing to cross the border.
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